Why UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt had to reverse some of the policies in the mini budget.
It’s been well documented that today- 17th October 2022 the new Chancellor of the Exchequer controversially reversed some of the changes made by his predecessor.
The media is lying to you. I apologise for the length of this post but I have to tell you how the media is lying to you! Please read and I welcome your comments below.
I am a trader and today I have a moral duty to explain to you- Joe and Josephine public — that the media is lying to you over the Chancellor’s reforms.
Chancellor Hunt reversed some of the measures made in the mini budget not because he wanted to. *It was because he had to.*
There are two reasons.
1. Firstly, because the mini budget policies were working- they were working too well!
2. It was also because the pound rocketed against the Japanese Yen on Friday 14th October.
However, the main stream media can’t see this!
It is my job as an entrepreneur to create wealth and prosperity for you. However, we traders and entrepreneurs are also accountable to you- the people we serve.
First thing’s first the only figure of the pound against the major currencies that you should consider is the figure at 10 pm — 1130 pm (UK time) Monday to Friday because during that time the markets for the major currencies are closed. Outside those times the currencies can be up and down like a yoyo. Or if you’ve seen Blackadder the currencies can be up and down like Lord Flasheart’s trousers.
Now the Japanese markets open at 11:30 pm our time and trade till 7:30 am out time so in effect they open at 11: 30 pm on Sunday night. That’s why night time traders like me do Sunday to Thursday 10 pm to 11:30 pm. No doubt Chancellor Hunt saw the huge rise in the UK pound against the Japanese Yen on Friday and alarm bells would have been ringing. The Yen has plummeted recently. He would have thought over the weekend he has to take drastic action.
Have you ever seen Superman III? In that movie Superman is asked to help stop a fire in a chemical plant. He goes round the back and tries to get a scientist out. The scientist says that he cannot go because if the bottles of acid reach a certain temperature then the fire outside will be nothing by comparison. Superman had to take drastic action. He flew to a local lake, froze it and dropped it over the plant to cause rainfall and avert a disaster. However, nobody knew about the bottles of acid tha the scientist was looking after.
The same applies here. Very few people knew about the Japanese Yen issue.
PM Liz Truss inherited a falling pound against the dollar and if got too weak we’d be heading for an economic meltdown which would make the Wall Street crash seem like a walk in the park. The problem here is that President Trump made the dollar very strong. Most of his reforms resulting in a strong dollar have not been repealed- something President Biden is taking credit for.
At the time of the mini budget on 23rd September the pound slipped to $1.02 against the pound for a few moments. They were almost level. However, Chancellor Karteng introduced 2 measures that had a great profound effect.
That week the independent bank of England raised interest rates.
Chancellor Karteng did two acts of financial genius.
1. He reduced corporation tax making it cheaper for business owners to invest in their businesses and employ people than it would be to pay taxes. This is one of the major ways President Trump sent the US economy booming.
2. He reduced the tax on bankers bonuses giving traders more of an incentive to trade the pound against the major currencies.
Given that the pound was very weak on Friday 23rd it meant that investors from abroad would invest into the UK over that weekend which is exactly what happened.
On top of that the Bank of England raised interest rates so foreign investors would get more for their buck.
This is why if you look at the charts below you’ll see that on Friday 23rd September the pound dipped to its lowest level against the US dollar. However since then it has strengthened against the 7 major currencies. The US Dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese Yen.
Green means a rise, red is a fall.
There was a slight blip on Friday 7th October when the US non-farm payroll figure came out and the dollar rallied temporarily for a few days but the UK pound continued to strengthen.
However, it worked too well.
If you look this this chart you will see what happened on Friday 14th October the pound went crazy against the Japanese Yen.
I want you to consider what would happen if you were pushing against a car which was stuck and then suddenly the handbrake failed. The car would go off and potentially cause a disaster.
Since the mini budget the pound has gone from as low as $1.02 (for a few minutes) to $1.14. That’s a huge rise. A rise too quickly can cause just as many problems as a huge fall.
Many businesses have gone bust because they have grown too quickly. If you don’t believe me consider this. Imagine I sell item X. Imagine I sell 10 per week by buying 10 units and selling them at a profit. Imagine someone goes and orders 1000 units. Most people would be breaking open the champagne.
However, if you go and buy them on credit and then the customer doesn’t come back I am lumbered with 1000 items and I am out of pocket. This is the basis of the credit crunch. If that person goes out of business, then their customers face a lack of money and it goes on.
If the pound gets strong then its good that items we buy in dollars such as oil, petrol and diesel, overseas produced food become cheaper to import. A strong pound reduces inflation and reduces the pressure to raise interest rates.
However, if it gets too strong too quickly then British items cost far too much abroad and we can’t export UK items. That can lead to huge job losses, businesses going bust, a rise in inflation and interest rates.
If you are going to strengthen the pound it’s far better that you get half a cent per day than 20 or 30 cents in one day. I would be very satisfied with a $0.004 rise of the pound against the dollar every trading day for the next 12 months (240 trading days in total.)
Chancellor Hunt obviously saw what happened on Friday 14th with regards the pound against the Japanese Yen and had to reverse some of the changes in the mini budget.
This is my guess PM Truss let Chancellor Karteng go to divert attention from other things. Businesses do this all the time.
Now some people have made comments about me being a trader and a fitness trainer. Let me explain.
I am an end of day trader- I trade between 10 pm and 11:30 pm when the markets of the 7 major currencies are closed. Now during lockdown my business took a huge hit so I started trading to supplement my company income.
The number one cause of obesity, believe it or not, is not exercising too little, it’s not eating too much- it’s poverty. I wrote a blog about this in 2008 and I was pasted. However, in 2015 the Fabian society wrote their report called Hungry for change and I was totally vindicated for this. (3.)
A common reason for people not to hire me as their fitness trainer- even on my £10.49 per week live online streamed classes is because they can’t afford it. Well, I counter this in two ways.
Firstly, I do the trading so I can keep my prices down.
Secondly I get my clients to copy my trades. Whenever I do a trade their mobile phones go off. They can copy my trades and earn the same amount I do. Now for many members of the public another £1–2000 per month tax free is life changing. If they make a profit I get a few pennies in commission so it’s win-win. On top of that with the money I can open up more scholarship places.
My live classes are done between 9 pm — 9:45 pm when the kids are in bed. Then I get a bite to eat and then trade. My goal is to get 10 million people copying my trades so they can take home another £1–2000 per month tax free.
Hope that explains everything.
In conclusion the media have not told you the truth and the opposition have lapped it up. However, for reasons given above they’ll have egg on their face.
Bibliography
- Flashheart In Action https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klnAMIWN3T0&list=PLv5_vg_ZHMDGEV_itzVj8fgGmQQYAd2d_&index=105
- Superman III (1/10) Movie CLIP — Making It Rain (1983) HD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UpUjmKJaso
- The number one cause of obesity http://www.jamesbondhealthandfitness.co.uk/the-number-one-cause-of-obesity
